Polymarket investigates election prediction market bets

Prediction market company Polymarket reported that it has investigated bets related to upcoming midterm elections, UPI reported on October 27, 2026. Shana Bautista, the head of Global Intelligence and Investigations at Polymarket, confirmed the inquiries. UPI noted that NPR reported at least two of the investigations were referred to the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission. [1]

Bautista stated that the company builds detections around how someone would try to manipulate an election market and what activity that would leave behind, UPI reported. She added that her team brings years of experience tracing funds and investigating sophisticated networks to evaluate evidence. [1]

Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency based prediction market launched in 2020 and headquartered in Manhattan, New York City, with legal domicile in Panama. The platform operates through a peer to peer structure on the Polygon blockchain network. Participants trade shares priced between 0.01 dollars and 1.00 dollar that represent the market implied probabilities for events across politics, sports, entertainment, and global affairs. [2][3]

The platform grew into the largest prediction market in the world, with trading volumes exceeding 3 billion dollars during the 2024 United States presidential election. In 2025, Polymarket secured a 2 billion dollar funding round that valued the company at 9 billion dollars. [3]

Concerns over gambling on political events follow previous cases of insider betting. As FTMQ News reported earlier, former Conservative campaign director Anthony Lee and his wife Laura Lee previously received suspended prison sentences for cheating at gambling after using inside information to place bets on an election date. [4]