International Energy Agency warns global diesel squeeze will last into 2027

Wholesale diesel prices in Europe could increase in the coming weeks, according to a warning issued by the International Energy Agency on Wednesday. Euronews, CNBC, Reuters, Türkiye Today, The Straits Times, and SuaraGarut.ID all reported that the Paris-based watchdog expects diesel supply constraints to persist well into 2027. [1][2][3][4][6][7][8][9]

CNBC reported that war-related disruptions involving Iran, falling inventories, and resilient demand are straining the diesel market. Euronews and Türkiye Today noted that recovering oil production in the Gulf has failed to resolve the fuel squeeze, as global supply continues to fall short of consumption. [1][2][7]

Global oil supply rose by 2.5 million barrels a day to reach 102.3 million barrels a day in September, driven by a Saudi-led increase, Euronews reported. However, CNBC noted that gasoil markets experienced a counter-seasonal tightening during the third quarter, which has further constrained supplies. [1][2]

The 2026 Iran war, which includes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, caused what the International Energy Agency described as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. As FTMQ News reported earlier, the International Monetary Fund previously warned that escalating Middle East tensions could drive up global crude prices and increase fuel costs. [10][12]